Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Challenge to Israeli Regional Hegemony
The recent revelation of an Israeli intelligence operation that exposed a Turkey-based Hamas cell’s alleged plot to assassinate National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir represents far more than an isolated security incident. Rather, it constitutes a crystallization of the profound structural transformation in Turkish-Israeli relations that has evolved under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman foreign policy paradigm, a diplomatic architecture that has systematically repositioned Turkey as a patron of Palestinian resistance organizations while simultaneously severing the strategic foundations of its historically cooperative relationship with Israel.
The Strategic Architecture of Turkish-Hamas Cooperation
The intelligence operation, disclosed by Israel’s Shin Bet security service, revealed that Hamas operatives based in the West Bank had allegedly received approximately $2,000 from Turkish contacts to procure explosive-laden drones for the assassination attempt. According to Israeli investigators, this cell operated “under the command of Hamas leadership in Turkey,” suggesting not merely isolated criminal activity but rather a systematic operational infrastructure that leverages Turkey’s territorial sovereignty for strategic planning against Israeli targets. Turkish officials noted that the allegations were tied to an incident from approximately eight months prior to the September 2025 announcement, indicating that the operational planning had been under investigation for an extended period.
This operational dimension reflects the institutionalization of Turkey’s support for Hamas that has evolved significantly since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, which resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish nationals and one Turkish-American, with a tenth victim (Ugur Süleyman Söylemez) dying in May 2014 after four years in a coma. The incident marked a watershed moment that fundamentally altered the trajectory of Turkish-Israeli relations, transforming Turkey from a strategic partner into what many Israeli policymakers now perceive as a hostile regional actor.
Turkey’s denial of involvement in the assassination plot, characterizing the allegations as a “deliberate disinformation campaign,” reflects the complex diplomatic calculus that Ankara maintains regarding its Hamas relationship. Turkish officials consistently argue that they host only Hamas’s political leadership while providing no military support, a distinction that Israeli intelligence appears to challenge through documented evidence of operational coordination. Following reports in November 2024 about Hamas leadership relocating from Qatar to Turkey, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources clarified that “Members of Hamas’s political bureau visit Turkey from time to time. However, claims about relocation of the Hamas political office to Turkey do not reflect the truth”.
Neo-Ottomanism and Erdoğan’s Regional Vision
The theoretical framework of neo-Ottomanism provides essential analytical context for understanding Turkey’s contemporary Middle Eastern engagement strategy. Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey has pursued what scholars characterize as a “reinvigoration of Turkish influence in the Middle Eastern region” aimed at establishing “Ankara as the pre-eminent power in the neighbourhood”. This strategic orientation represents a fundamental departure from Turkey’s traditional Kemalist foreign policy of Western alignment and regional restraint.
Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman vision encompasses several interconnected dimensions that directly impact Turkish-Israeli relations. First, the ideological component emphasizes Turkey’s claimed leadership of the Sunni Islamic world, positioning Ankara as the defender of Palestinian rights and the liberator of Islamic holy sites. This manifested dramatically during Erdoğan’s July 2020 speech on Hagia Sophia’s conversion into a mosque, when he declared that next in line was the “liberation of Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem”. The statement, published in Arabic with more explicit language than its Turkish and English versions, explicitly connected the Hagia Sophia conversion to the “return of freedom to al-Aqsa,” effectively calling for the removal of Israeli control over Jerusalem’s Old City.
Second, the geopolitical dimension involves Turkey’s systematic expansion of influence across former Ottoman territories, including Syria, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean. This territorial ambition creates direct strategic competition with Israeli interests, particularly regarding Syrian developments and Eastern Mediterranean energy resources. Turkey’s military interventions in Syria, ostensibly targeting Kurdish forces, have established de facto Turkish control over substantial northern Syrian territories where the Turkish lira serves as the recognized currency.
Third, the institutional dimension encompasses Turkey’s creation of operational infrastructure for regional intervention, including military bases in Qatar, Somalia, and Libya, alongside diplomatic and intelligence networks that facilitate coordination with aligned non-state actors. This infrastructure provides the logistical foundation for Turkey’s support of groups like Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which operate from Turkish territory with apparent governmental acquiescence.
The Hamas-PIJ Operational Infrastructure in Turkey
Turkish territory has emerged as a crucial operational hub for Palestinian resistance organizations, with Hamas establishing “one of its most important overseas centers” primarily operated by prisoners released in the 2011 Gilad Shalit exchange deal. This infrastructure encompasses multiple dimensions of organizational support that extend well beyond mere political hospitality.
Intelligence and operational planning constitute the most sensitive aspect of this relationship. Israeli security forces have documented Hamas’s establishment of a cyber and intelligence unit in Istanbul around 2018, managed by the Hamas military wing and headed by Samah Sarraj, who reported directly to then-Hamas leader Yahya al-Sinwar. The unit’s objectives included procurement of dual-use materials banned from Gaza entry and coordination of international operations against Israeli targets.
Financial operations represent another critical dimension, with Hamas utilizing Turkey to “raise and launder money in support of its terrorist operations, including the October 7, 2023, attack and massacre”. Turkish authorities have facilitated this through dedicated financial institutions and business networks, with many Hamas operatives establishing enterprises in Turkey’s real estate sector while obtaining Turkish citizenship or long-term residence permits.
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad maintains a parallel presence in Turkey, with figures like Sami Al-Arian, a US-convicted PIJ operative, enjoying Turkish governmental protection and access to state media platforms. Al-Arian, deported from the United States following terrorism convictions, has been employed by Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University, an institution overseen by Erdoğan’s son, while regularly appearing on state-run media outlets to promote anti-Israeli narratives and jihadist rhetoric.
The Deterioration of Turkish-Israeli Relations Post-October 7
The Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack on Israel marked a definitive rupture in Turkish-Israeli diplomatic relations, with Erdoğan characterizing Hamas operatives as “freedom fighters” while denouncing Israel’s military response as “genocide”. Turkey’s response to the conflict has encompassed multiple dimensions of confrontation that extend well beyond rhetorical criticism.
Economic warfare has emerged as a primary tool of Turkish pressure, with Ankara implementing a complete severance of trade ties with Israel on August 29, 2025, marking the first time Turkey has completely cut all commercial relations despite ongoing political tensions. This represents a fundamental departure from historical precedent, where economic ties typically survived diplomatic crises. Turkey has also restricted Israeli-owned vessels from docking at Turkish ports and completely closed Turkish airspace to Israeli aircraft as of August 2025.
Diplomatic isolation efforts have intensified through Turkey’s support for South Africa’s International Court of Justice case against Israel and Ankara’s call for Israel’s suspension from the UN General Assembly. Turkey has formally announced the complete severance of all diplomatic relations with Israel, with Erdoğan declaring in September 2025 that “Turkey has cut all ties with Israel as global pressure mounts over accusations of genocide”.
Legal and intelligence confrontations have escalated through Turkey’s detention of 33 individuals suspected of working for Israeli intelligence services in raids across eight provinces, conducted in response to reports that Israel intended to target Hamas members abroad. This represents a direct challenge to Israeli intelligence operations and signals Turkey’s willingness to protect Hamas operatives within its territory.
Qatar-Turkey Strategic Coordination and Regional Implications
The strategic partnership between Turkey and Qatar provides crucial context for understanding regional dynamics following recent tensions in Doha. Turkey maintains over 3,000 troops in Qatar with potential expansion to 5,000 personnel, alongside naval and air force deployments scheduled for future implementation. This military presence serves multiple strategic functions, including protection of Qatari sovereignty against potential Saudi-Emirati pressure and projection of Turkish influence across the Gulf region.
The Turkey-Qatar axis emerged during the 2017-2021 Qatar diplomatic crisis, when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain imposed a blockade on Qatar partly motivated by disagreement over regional policies, including Qatar’s hosting of Hamas leadership. Turkey’s military deployment to Qatar during this crisis demonstrated Ankara’s commitment to protecting aligned regional partners while simultaneously asserting Turkish strategic interests in the Gulf.
Following Israel’s September 2025 strike on Hamas negotiators in Doha, Turkey and Qatar have coordinated diplomatic responses that signal deepening strategic cooperation. Erdoğan’s immediate condemnation of the Israeli attack and pledge to coordinate “joint steps” with Qatar reflects the institutionalized nature of this partnership, which extends beyond immediate crisis management to encompass broader regional strategic planning.
This coordination has significant implications for regional balance of power dynamics, as it creates an alternative axis to the Saudi-Emirati-Israeli alignment that has emerged through the Abraham Accords process. The Turkey-Qatar partnership provides sustained support for Palestinian resistance organizations while simultaneously challenging the regional normalization process that Israel and its Gulf partners have pursued.
Regional Security Implications and Strategic Assessment
The intersection of Turkish neo-Ottoman ambitions, systematic support for Palestinian resistance organizations, and deteriorating relations with Israel creates multiple pathways for regional escalation. The documented Hamas operational infrastructure in Turkey suggests that Ankara’s territory may increasingly serve as a platform for planning and coordinating attacks against Israeli targets, transforming Turkey from a diplomatic critic into a potential operational adversary.
Syrian developments present a particularly volatile dimension of Turkish-Israeli competition. Turkey’s military control over northern Syrian territories, combined with reports that Turkey is “allowing Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to take up military positions in Syria,” creates potential for direct Turkish-Israeli confrontation. Israel’s established policy of preventing Iranian and proxy force entrenchment in Syria may increasingly bring Israeli forces into conflict with Turkish-supported Palestinian operatives.
The broader regional architecture also reflects Turkey’s systematic challenge to the Israeli-American strategic framework in the Middle East. Turkey’s hosting of Hamas leadership, financial support networks, and operational infrastructure represents a direct challenge to Israeli security interests while simultaneously undermining American efforts to isolate Palestinian resistance organizations. The recent Doha incident, where Israel struck Hamas negotiators in a US-allied capital, demonstrates the complex triangular tensions between Israeli security imperatives, American alliance management, and Turkish regional ambitions.
Contemporary Turkish-Israeli relations thus reflect a fundamental transformation from strategic partnership to strategic competition, driven by Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman regional vision and Turkey’s systematic support for Palestinian resistance organizations. The recent assassination plot revelation represents not an isolated incident but rather a manifestation of deeper structural changes in regional geopolitics that position Turkey as a potential successor to Iran as Israel’s primary regional adversary. The trajectory of this relationship will significantly influence broader Middle Eastern stability, alliance structures, and the prospects for regional conflict resolution, particularly as Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions continue to expand across former Ottoman territories while Israel maintains its strategic imperative to prevent the emergence of hostile operational infrastructure on its periphery.




















