Somaliland, “Palestine”, and the West’s Geopolitical Blindness
International law’s promise of impartiality and order is belied by the precedent that state recognition is ultimately a battleground of interests, prejudice, and political convenience. Nowhere is this more evident than in the international treatment of Somaliland and Palestine—a paradox that not only distorts principles of law, but also impedes the security and progress of regions vital to global stability.
Somaliland: Democracy in Exile
The Republic of Somaliland, a former British protectorate, has quietly built one of Africa’s most sophisticated democracies over three decades of peace and self-rule. Its governance seamlessly integrates clan-based consensus with multiparty elections and a robust, decentralized legal framework. While Somalia itself has been mired in conflict and extremism, Somaliland’s government has delivered stability, social development, and credible elections—rare achievements in the Horn of Africa.
Yet, Somaliland remains unrecognized by every UN member state. This is despite meeting every criterion established by the Montevideo Convention: it possesses a defined territory and permanent population, exercises effective governmental authority, and demonstrates capacity for international diplomacy. The sole barrier lies not in law, but in international politics—most conspicuously the African Union’s rigid stance against any change to colonial borders, and the Western world’s unwillingness to offend its own shifting constituencies or upset fragile regional arrangements.
Juxtaposed with Somaliland’s diplomatic limbo is the meteoric rise of Palestine’s international status. Palestine currently claims the recognition of roughly 143–145 states and holds UN observer status granted in 2012. This ascent owes more to the mobilization of international sympathy, geopolitical alignment, and demographic realities in Europe than to conventional criteria of statehood. Palestine’s authority remains divided between the West Bank and Gaza; its institutions are fragmented and its territorial claims disputed.
Yet it is the political narrative and electoral calculus that drives recognition. European governments regularly promote Palestinian recognition, reflecting both post-colonial solidarity and the demographic influence of growing Muslim electorates who increasingly shape policy debates and voting outcomes across major cities.
The Real Costs of Diplomatic Blindness
This paradox has real consequences. Western governments, by refusing Somaliland recognition while elevating Palestine, undermine their stated commitment to democracy and the rule of law. More critically, they sacrifice a pivotal opportunity for strategic partnership in a region riven by instability, piracy, and the growing menace of transnational terrorism. Somaliland’s strategic location—at the gates of the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandab, vital arteries of global commerce—makes it indispensable to regional security and the fight against Islamic extremism emanating from Al-Shabaab and Iranian proxies in Yemen.
Israel, recognizing Somaliland’s potential, quietly pursues avenues for cooperation, ranging from agricultural innovation and maritime security to intelligence-sharing against mutual threats. However, international inertia and AU resistance keep this partnership shackled, depriving both parties of what could be transformative benefits—from port infrastructure to resilient food security and counterterrorist capabilities.
In substance, what is at stake is more than the sovereignty of a forgotten state. It is the credibility of international law and the ability of democracies to act with strategic clarity and moral confidence. As China, the Gulf states, and Turkey expand their influence in the Horn of Africa—building bases, controlling ports, and shaping the future of global trade—the West’s refusal to recognize Somaliland has become a strategic liability and a symbol of its waning influence.
The demographic shift in Western societies adds institutional weight to this paradox. Electoral calculations increasingly favor the symbolic politics of Palestine rather than the strategic realities of African security or the imperatives of Israel’s national survival. Academic circles, NGOs, and media organizations reinforce a narrative that equates recognition with justice, obscuring the fact that stable governments like Somaliland are left to languish outside the international system.
Time for Courage, Principle, and Strategic Vision
The recognition paradox is not an arcane legal debate; it is a measure of whether international order can survive the drift toward politicized sentiment and demographic appeasement. Somaliland’s continued exclusion from international legitimacy is not merely an African tragedy; it is a warning to democracies everywhere that their moral compass is faltering. The West must confront this challenge—not as an act of benevolence or token progress, but as an urgent correction to its own strategic and ethical blindness.
Recognition of Somaliland can restore both principle and pragmatism to international law, anchor democracy in a region desperate for stability, and revitalize partnerships essential to counterterrorism and global security. If the West and its leaders truly value the rule of law and the promise of democratic order, they must break the inertia, acknowledge the truth, and summon the courage to act.
